GloTraM

The GloTraM (Global Transport Model) product line is a range of products based on the GloTraM simulation model. GloTraM is a tool used for analysing future scenarios of the shipping industry, to estimate, amongst other metrics, the CO₂ emissions from shipping. GloTraM combines multi-disciplinary analysis and modelling techniques to perform a scenario-based analysis of the evolution of the shipping fleet out to 2050. GloTraM has undergone significant development over the last seven years and has been used in several of the leading publications.

The model considers change in the shipping sector by simulating its growth over time in response to changes in transport demand, macroeconomics (e.g. fuel, carbon price, newbuild price inflation), technology availability, regulation (e.g. regulations on GHG and other air emissions).

GloTraM can assist strategic decision-making by providing answers to questions such as:

• What is the structure of the world fleet going to be in the future?
• What is the marine fuel mix of the future going to look like?
• What is the size market of marine alternative fuels?
• What are the likely scrappage rates in the future?
• How can the shipping industry (or individual companies) future-proof their investment?
• How is the shipping industry going to respond to impending climate change regulations?
• What levels of investment are required to decarbonise the shipping industry?
• Which technologies come in at different stages of decarbonisation?

There are two options to access GloTraM and it’s outputs:

• Purchasing the outputs of a number of pre-defined scenarios, which include, business as usual and a range of other scenarios e.g. decarbonisation scenarios. These outputs can include aggregate fleet statistics by ship size and type and the technical specification of those vessels out to 2050.
• A bespoke scenario analysis based on your specification. The following publications have been produced using bespoke scenarios as specified by the clients:
  • Lloyds Register – Low Carbon Pathways 2050
  • Danish Shipowners Association – CO2 emissions from international shipping: Possible reduction targets and their associated pathways
  • Lloyds Register – Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
  • International Maritime Organisation – Assessing 0.5% sulphur fuel oil availability 
  • Carbon War Room – Navigating Decarbonisation: An approach to evaluate shipping’s risks and opportunities associated with climate change mitigation policy