A new report by UMAS suggests four first movers to achieve this target, container shipping, ammonia and LPG tankers, niche geographies and domestic shipping.
A new report by UMAS and the COP26 Climate Champions for the Getting to Zero Coalition suggests that zero emission fuels need to make up 5% of the international shipping fuel mix by 2030. The ambition of the Getting to Zero Coalition is to have commercially viable zero emission vessels operating along deep sea trade routes by 2030. The analysis looks at what degree of adoption it will take for zero emission fuels to become commercially viable. An S-curve based analysis suggests that zero emission fuels need to make up 5% of the international shipping fuel mix by 2030 to enable decarbonisation in line with Paris goals.
To estimate the “tipping point” shipping needs to achieve by 2030 for rapid diffusion of zero emission technology thereafter, we generated an S-curve to fit the UMAS 2036 and 2046 milestones. These establish that to reach decarbonization by 2050, zero emission fuels need to represent 27 percent of total energy by 2036, and 93 percent by 2046. Though the Getting to Zero Coalition has not yet aligned on a target year for full decarbonization, it is preferable to have a 2030 target that enables decarbonization in line with the Paris Agreement. The resulting curve indicates the need for a 5 percent adoption rate of zero emission fuels by 2030.
Based on this the UN Climate Champions have set 5 percent zero emission fuels by 2030 as the Race to Zero Breakthrough for international shipping, campaigning to achieve this near term milestone to ensure that the sector is on track for net zero emissions before 2050. The Race to Zero Breakthroughs for nearly 30 sectors were launched at the World Economic Forum’s Davos Agenda in January 2021 with Al Gore, COP Presidents Alok Sharma and Carolina Schmidt, and UNFCCC Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa.
The full insight briefing can be found here