Shipping’s value chain can expect continued pressure on targets and commitments until it clearly aligns with an IPCC-derived definition of the steps needed to avoid temperatures rising above 1.5C. This pressure will come both from the policy process at the IMO and from the landscape of voluntary initiatives and commitments that intensify scrutiny and expectations of transparency. At a sector level, 1.5-alignment means taking even greater steps than many had already factored in as sufficient – much of shipping’s transition away from fossil fuel use will need to have been achieved by the end of the 2030’s. Managing the risks and opportunities that this creates starts with understanding where pressure on targets comes from and what is driving these latest developments in their specification.

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